Politics I am no longer convinced that Donald Trump will win the election

Started by Charlie Work, Jan 15, 2016, in Life Add to Reading List

  1. Chris_sirhC517
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    Jan 19, 2016
    His algorithm is pretty much made to favor Clinton.
    It puts a heavy weight on things like celebrity/establishment endorsements. While leaving out important intangibles like first time voter support, momentum, and excitement/energy. The things that catapulted Obama to a win in 08.

    I'm not knocking the algorithm or saying he literally made it to slight Sanders but it places a very low importance on things that are hard to quantify and generally favor the Trump/Sanders of the world.
     
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  2. Charlie Work
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    Charlie Work Level 5 Goblin

    Jan 19, 2016
    Until he starts being wrong, I'm going to go ahead and trust his methods.
     
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  3. reservoirGod
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    reservoirGod reckless adventurer.

    Jan 19, 2016
    Trump is going to win Iowa then New Hampshire then South Carolina... the rest of Republican contest will be a cake walk for him. There will be tons of butt hurt... talk about a broker convention and and basically the whole Republican party (not the voters) saying what I have been saying since 2011... that Trump is a Democrat and this is basically reality TV performance art.


    Then the Democratic candidate will destroy him in the General Election.

    Trump will lose +70% of his brand just in rich people not wanting to buy his condos, rent his office space or play at his golf courses... and making his hotels into nothing but tall Red Roof Inns.
     
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  4. Chris_sirhC517
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    Jan 19, 2016
    If I'm not mistaken he grew in popularity due to his 2008 general election prediction right? So has he even done a primary yet?

    I have nothing against nerds who crunch numbers in excel and attempt to predict outcomes. I am one myself when it comes to the NBA and FanDuel, lmao. But has he done a primary yet? Not arguing, just asking.
     
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  5. Charlie Work
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    Charlie Work Level 5 Goblin

    Jan 19, 2016
    There was a primary in 2012... His site is named after him correctly predicting 538 senate seats.
     
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  6. reservoirGod
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    reservoirGod reckless adventurer.

    Jan 19, 2016
    Trump, Sarah Palin and Gov. Branstad have just kicked off Operation #PeopleDon'tLikeTed.

    Now Trump is going to get some endorsements by the some high up fanatical Christians... even though he is a Pro-Choice Democrat who has had a couple mistresses make the nightly news and probably hadn't cracked a Bible open in the years between 1970-2015.


    Lol, Republicans are dumb.
     
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  7. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Jan 19, 2016


    Oh how things have changed.... Regan would be polling below 5% today if he ran for the republican nomination.
     
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  8. M Solo
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    M Solo Fresh Outta London

    Jan 19, 2016
    Is Sarah Palin on something? I mean I remember her being a mental midget but I don't remember her being this big of a f---ing lunatic.
     
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  9. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Jan 19, 2016
    Nah, she's always been a nut job. Danny Strong made a movie about her when she ran with with McCain in 08 based off the book "Game Changer" which documented the campaign. She was a complete mess, she'd have constant mental break downs in preparation for debates. She'd go off script in interviews which led to numerous blunders, she wouldn't listen to her campaign advisers and would campaign in states and cities that she already had strong support in. It was essentially a complete mess for McCain lol.
     
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  10. reservoirGod
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    reservoirGod reckless adventurer.

    Jan 19, 2016
    I think she might have Wernicke-Korsakoff syndrome.
     
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  11. YiT
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    YiT Kornrow Kenny

    Jan 19, 2016
    I think trump (or any republican for that matter) would beat hillary. She just doesn't have the kind of support among young people and minorities that Obama and even Sanders have. A young hispanic guy like Rubio would wash her.
     
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  12. JMG
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    JMG

    Jan 19, 2016
    People can say what that want about Trump supporters. But the bottom line is we are people who see a country going in a terrible direction. I see Trump as a leader. Yes there is a lot to hate but I think he is the most honest and smartest in this election. Hes not controlled either unlike Hilary who does not really care about the country. Trump is the only one that I see with passion in running the country.
     
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  13. Chris_sirhC517
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    Jan 19, 2016
    It was a re-election for the Dems, and I could not find any data that says he was trying to project the Republican nominee, not that it was very close.
    Interesting fact about '538' though, that's pretty cool.
     
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  14. Charlie Work
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    Charlie Work Level 5 Goblin

    Jan 19, 2016
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-coverage-the-illinois-primary/
     
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  15. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Jan 19, 2016
    Young people generally vote democratic regardless. If Hillary wins the nomination, most of Bernie's youth support would vote for her in the general election. Especially if she had to run against Trump.
     
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  16. Howie
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    Jan 19, 2016
    You are right about Trump having a passion for running the country. He thirsts for power. We are glad he is honest in his racist and radical ways. It basically guarantees that the black and latino vote will get out to vote for whoever he goes against.

    You are incredibly wrong to say anyone on either stage does not care about the country. Hillary has contributed more to the United States in the last 2 decades than all of Congress. There is a reason she is the front runner for the political party who had the majority vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. Just because someone does not agree with your (racist and ridiculous) believe system, does not mean they do not care about this country.
     
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  17. YiT
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    YiT Kornrow Kenny

    Jan 19, 2016
    I don't think she'll get the turnout obama did or bernie would tho that's the issue. She's just not exciting and I know a lot of dems that flat out don't like her and would rather stay home. Also Trump appeals to young ppl in a weird way.
     
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  18. A R T
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    A R T ALLPOSITIVEVIBES | LONG. LIVE.| FutureHive |

    Jan 19, 2016
    yikes at people wanting this wasteman to win
     
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  19. Howie
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    Jan 19, 2016
    This is a fact and the only real question is will they show up at the polls like they did for Obama. I have a feeling they will not come close to those numbers, but it will still be enough to beat Trump. True Republicans are not going to vote for Trump just as certain Democrats will not vote for Hillary. If it is Clinton vs Trump, we may just see a lower than expected voter turn out.
     
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  20. YiT
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    YiT Kornrow Kenny

    Jan 19, 2016
    bruh she's the front runner because the only other candidate in the race is a socialist lol
     
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