Aug 16, 2016

@redsoxx More people know who Khabib is than Alvarez. Khabib has quite the loyal following. Granted it doesn't quite extend to the casual fan but nobody really has that at lightweight other than Cerrone and that doesn't make sense. The following Khabib has is only going to grow once he starts fighting regularly again too. Especially if he becomes an undefeated champion. There's definitely a while to go before he's a big draw or anything but he's above most of his peers at lightweight in that respect.

and yeah while that brawl is likely their normal saturday night... it's not the general public's. s---, you put that in a hype video along with them talking some s--- and that fight will do very well (provided Nate beats Conor again). Nate wants the money fights at the end of the day and if Khabib beats Alvarez and Nate beats Conor, that's the biggest fight he has at 155 without a doubt imo.

 

Aug 16, 2016

There have been 3 non-title fight main events ever. Two were by Nick Diaz, but one was only because GSP dropped out. Really doubt the Fertitas were the main schism between Nick and the UFC. He's a stubborn moron. Highly doubt the UFC will headline Nate from here on out as a consistent thing. He has Fight Night written all over him if he's not fighting for an interim belt. Not to mention, he doesn't have the opportunity to fight many GSP or Silva or McGregor figures after this.

 

Aug 16, 2016

Outside of Conor, what current champs do you think would outsell a Nate Diaz headlined PPV? Most seem either reserved for Fox/FS1/TUF or Co-mains on PPVs and those that do headline the PPV tend to be in the 200k-300k range (bar the occasional stacked card)

I know Khabib is pretty popular in Russia (or some cold frozen wasteland near it talents) but not sure how well that'll translate over to the states or its casual fan base.

Assuming Cowboy plans to come back to LW anytime soon, Diaz V Cowboy 2 wouldn't be a bad way to "test the waters" with Diaz's new post 202 popularity.

 

Aug 16, 2016

Khabib really isn't that unpopular. He has 86k followers on twitter, while Alvarez has 38k. Twitter followers obviously aren't everything lol but when he was supposed to fight Cerrone he really picked up a strong following. I mean Khabib has been inactive for years other than that fight against Horcher and he's still quite a lot more popular than Alvarez is.

I mean I guess they could make the Cerrone/Diaz fight again. I'm not really into that fight much tho. Nate already beat him easily. Just doesn't make much sense to me at this point in their careers. Diaz is being blown into super-stardom and Cerrone is kinda going through a resurgence at WW right now. A title fight with bad blood makes more sense to me. Look what happened with Cormier and Jones. They're different fights... don't get me wrong... but they have a few similarities. Khabib's english has gotten a lot better too.

EDIT:

Well, looks like Khabib is now booked . I mean I'm not against building him up and getting him some more momentum anyway.

 

Aug 16, 2016

McGregor/Nate 1 & 2, Silva/Diaz, Silva vs Bonnar, Diaz vs Penn, Rashad vs Hendo, Franklin vs W. Silva 2, Lesnar/Overeem, Shogun/Hendo 1, Rashad/Tito 2, JDS/Carwin, Rampage/Hamill, Penn/Fitch, Machida/Rampage, Mir/Cro Cop, Liddell/Franklin, Rampage/Rashad, Big Nog/Cain, Couture/Coleman (lol), Rashad/ T. Silva, Tito/Forrest 2, Franklin/Belfort and Couture/Big Nog. Those are just Post-UFC 100 non-Title PPV's. Honestly the current champs are s--- draws, 198 and 199 were both great cards that did around 320 K PPV buys. Nate Diaz beats Conor again, I put his floor at about 400 K.

Honestly they put on a lot of PPV's, they cut a few out this year because of 196 (the OG, Cain/Werdum 2) and just so they could line 200 up with July. But they've stacked them and they still did poor outside the McGregor/200 ones. I honestly think business-wise its pretty dumb to stick these non-draws ahead of stars. I mean ppl forget that UFC 178: DJ vs Cariaso barely cleared 200 K, if that s--- was called 178: McGregor vs Poirier it probably does at least 300 K, this was before he completely blew up but still card for sure does better.

Again they're not sticking Nate on some FS1 cards, because he isn't gonna go for that. He would rather not fight then get some 300-500 K paydays. They could still technically give him PPV points and stick him under some random Title fights, but hes a bigger draw then any champ other then maybe McGregor and thats before 202.

No casuals know either of them, Nate Diaz's name sells either fight and he has beef with Eddie as well. But I really don't see Nate wanting to fight a guy who is gonna smother him like Khabib, Alvarez has had boring fights against Pettis and Melendez but he won't be able to do that against Nate for 5 rounds. Nate will probably end up taking a little mini retirement after 202 until a big fight or favorable match up presents itself. And honestly if Ferguson beats RDA and doesn't get a title shot its a joke.

Maybe Khabib is the "biggest fight" for him at 155, but its by very little and its also a risky fight against a style of fighter that the Diaz brothers both hate. Nate could come back in a year and rematch Cerrone at WW and would be a bigger, much more winnable fight.

 

Aug 16, 2016

I know he has some kind of beef with Eddie but I remember Eddie talking about it and saying on his end it wasn't a huge problem and that Diaz mean mugged him after Eddie beat his teammate (Melendez). I think the Khabib/Diaz thing has more potential. Yeah I mean you could be right in saying it won't ever happen because it's stylistically bad for Diaz. But I really see the potential in that fight. Especially once Khabib has gained some more momentum and continues his undefeated streak.

The cerrone/diaz fight obviously has a lot of potential business-wise at the right time as well. I really wouldn't be surprised if Nate takes a break from the fight game either and waits for the right fight and the right time (not sure a conor level fight will ever come his way again tho).

 

Aug 16, 2016

Most of those events were do to the championship fights folding or for interim belts or #1 contender matches. Nate's not good enough to reach any of those positions on merit. @redsoxx Nick proved against Condit he could draw as the a side. Nate has not proven that. They'll never headline a nontitle fight over a title fight if they didn't for 200. He could comain and get some PPV points. I just don't see them changing course. The UFC has all the control and will happily put you in contract h--- until they get what they want.

 

Aug 16, 2016

Did Nick prove that though? 143 did 400 K buys, the next PPV was Frankie/Bendo 1 and that did 375. He had a fight with BJ right before that, that shed limelight on him (despite piss poor PPV numbers). Nate was never given the opportunity to really show what he could do on PPV. I mean he more then earned that title shot against Bendo and that did great numbers on FOX. Would anyone really say that Nick is more popular in 2016 then Nate?

You want to know what also did great numbers? a Shevchenko/Holm fight that had a trash undercard. Why? because Holly knocked Ronda out and then was co main of 196 and lost. She got "the rub", that Nate will get if he wins 2 of the biggest PPV's in UFC history. I also think the UFC had an ulterior motive for putting Tate/Nunes as the headliner (as opposed to it being given the slot due to merit), they were planning for Miesha to win and Ronda to come back and fight her next. And also Brock hadn't fought in 5 years, was unranked and the "UFC 200" name sold itself. Card was being talked about for over a year and between the McGregor and Jones drama everybody knew what was going on and everybody knew Brock was on the card.

I think the McGregor fights have been a game changer for Nate and all of the UFC's draws are getting knocked off (as the company gets sold). Stipe, DC, Bisping (#2 draw as champ imo), Woodley, Alvarez, Cruz, DJ, Nunes & JJ, I don't think 1 of them outdraws Nate now. You're gonna fill out 10-11 PPV's (assuming 2-3 McGregor PPV's) with these ppl next year? Expect a lot of 200-300 K buy cards

 

Aug 16, 2016

Now we're pretty much arguing about speculation. We'll see.

Rumor: Khabib vs Barboza @ 204
Already on the card:
Bisping vs Henderson
Belfort vs Mousasi
OSP vs Manuwa
Magomedov vs Struve

 

Aug 16, 2016

apparently that rumour is false. this guy is a much more reliable source:

 

Aug 16, 2016

It didn't really make sense to me. That would make the 4 top contenders competing against each other while the UFC relies on Diaz to beat McGregor so they could put him against Alvarez. Really hoping they just announce who Eddie and Woodley are fighting officially. Not just Dana off the cuff.

 

Aug 17, 2016

Hopefully the UFC swoops him up (although i have a feeling KSW will offer him more $). More well rounded version of Paul Sass, been around forever and is still just 24 years old. Had Will Brooks in some tough spots in that 1st round.

 

Aug 17, 2016

Francisco Rivera flagged by USADA....

 

Aug 18, 2016

Chael's lady gave birth the other day, 10 weeks early. Contracted listeria, so did the baby and she passed away because of it so brutal...

 

Aug 18, 2016

Sad to hear but I think it was just the daughter that passed away. Not the wife (I read your message that his wife died).

 

Aug 18, 2016

Yea really sad to hear about Chael's daughter.

Anyways Invicta 19 Main and Co-Main were just announced. Roxy getting a title shot tells you, that all the best 125's are just fighting out of weight class in the UFC.



Hoping Jihn wins, but Hamasaki probably wins and then maybe comes to the UFC and moves up to 115 like Waterson and Penne did.

Might remember Jihn Yu Frey from this viral KO from a few years back



Also looks like Francisco Rivera is using the "tainted meat" excuse as well.

 

Aug 19, 2016

Can someone who knows more about the UFC than me tell me if the UFC Portland card is a good one, bad one, decent or whatever? Here's the link, thanks..Don't need a ton of details or anything, just wondering like in general.

http://www.ufc-fr.com/evenement-380.html

Gonna get tickets asap but don't have the fight pass pre sale or the other presale the next day so hope I can still get something decent with the regular on sale date. I'll use stubhub if I have to lol.

 

Aug 19, 2016

Above average and that link only shows about half the card.

 

Aug 19, 2016

It's worth it just for the main event IMO

 

Aug 19, 2016

Supposedly Yair Rodriguez (#11) vs Doo Ho Choi (#13) happening at the TUF Finale. They went from slow build with Yair to throwing him to the wolves, real quick.

Edit: Ariel deaded this on twitter