Feb 11, 2020 After today, Biden camp has to be sounding off all the alarms. The wheels are falling off. With Biden doing this poorly early on, makes me wonder how Kamala Harris would have done if she would have just stuck in the race. The chances of a contested convention are also growing which people really aren’t talking about. I really hope it doesn’t come to that because a contested convention leading into a general election where the democratic base *needs* to be unified, would be a complete & total s--- show.
Feb 12, 2020 CNN was ridiculous last night "if you add the other 8 candidates votes together versus Bernie, it's clear he didn't really win"
Feb 12, 2020 Sanders is slightly more likely to win a majority of pledged delegates (37%) than there is of there being a contested convention (34%).
Feb 12, 2020 I am a little bit worried that as more moderates drop out, a lot of their votes will start going toward the non-Sanders candidate who's left at the top, which right now is looking like it will be Pete (though I could see Bloomberg with a slim chance of Klobuchar as well). I assume the lion's share of Yang voters will go to Bernie or possibly Warren. Not a ton of votes of course, but as we've seen so far, a few percentage points can be all you need to finish 1st (0.1%, in the case of Iowa).
Feb 12, 2020 I’m almost there lol. This isn’t a change election where regular people want sweeping initiatives from Bernie. Having him as the nominee cedes the #1 issue voters care about, health care, back to GOP. And the gop is better than Dems at waging war lol. They leave scar tissue that’s the game. Hope I’m wrong (I rarely am)
Feb 12, 2020 Pete doesn’t have the minority support to do well from here on out, and he spent almost all of his money on the first two states hoping for huge wins to make him the front runner, which didn’t work. It’s not like all the other candidates supporters will never back Bernie. Exit poll data shows there’s overlaps between Sanders/Klobuchar or Sanders/Buttigieg I’m certain demographics. like college educated women were a big base for Klob here, but polled in support of warren. If Klob and Warren end up dropping that’s a base I’d see leaning Bernie over buttigieg. keep in mind that a lot of klobuchars support was decided on in the last week due to strong debate performance too. That’s the swing vote of the primaries and it won’t be moderate in every state.
Feb 12, 2020 @Big Cuntry to expand, people and the press have treated it as if there is a firm line between progressive and moderate voters. There is a group in between/undecided who haven’t coalesced into Bernies camp yet, but absolutely could moving forward.
Feb 12, 2020 I just wanna see Trump expose socialism and what Bernie is really about. Most people dont see to know. But things are running smooth in America right now. There isn't a big enough reason to vote him out. Bill Marr was right about us needing a recession to make people turn on him. Wont happen. He deserves 4 more years and will get it. Maybe even 8 if he can argue his first term shouldn't count because of the countless slanderous attacks and distracting him from doing his job. Even though he still managed to get things done. Anyways welcome aboard the trump train.. @Papa Alpha Andy. Glad you came around.
Feb 12, 2020 No, actually, I am correct lol. Why, you might ask? * In key swing states, between 44 and 49 percent of 2018 midterm voters named health care as their top issue. Three-quarters of those who did so voted for the Democrats. * On this issue, as you know, Republicans have no good story to tell. They failed to repeal and replace the ACA. Now they are held responsible for its “implosion” — Trump’s ill-chosen word back in 2017. * Four years ago, voters blamed Democrats for problems with Obamacare by 66 percent to 23 percent. Today, 61 percent blame Republicans; just 32 percent Democrats. If you suggest massive tax hikes, regardless of the merits of M4A or whatever you want to call it lol, the pendelum will politically swing the other way again. Bet on it - h---, we are already seeing it. Trump: "The Democrat Party Wants To Run Your Health Care, But They Can't Even Run A Caucus In Iowa" https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v..._but_they_cant_even_run_a_caucus_in_iowa.html Don't rock the boat, presently, let the GOP own their failure. Then implement incremental reform. That's the surest way to win vis a vis HC.
Feb 12, 2020 Is there ever really a I can see your reasoning here, but will there ever be a good time to suggest/implement tax hikes? People will always fight that tooth and nail. And wouldn't the same thing happen in this hypothetical if any democrat tries to introduce any sort of HC reform even if it's not as radical of a change?
Feb 12, 2020 what lol no lol. or only if its for the very rich bc f--- them. no thats what im suggesting. i genuinely think average rust belt voters etc want to be on the dems side on hc..... if dems are saying lets maintain the system and make improvements on it which wont fundamentally upset the status quo while also expanding/lowering the cost of coverage. bidens position (at the moment ofc since hes technically still in the race heh). but when you start talking sweeping change - reality or not - it will be construed as a tax hike in some form or another. another a costly short term overhaul. my read on the countrys mood is Caution.
Feb 12, 2020 Oh for the first part I had the wrong message quoted and started typing and then my cursor shifted down and I forgot about it my bad Aight I get what you mean then. I think you're right that sweeping change can scare people, especially people who have lived in the same town/state and/or worked in the same blue collar industry their whole life (ie a lot of rust belt voters). But at the same time, for a lot of people, M4A isn't something that can wait very long. I'm alive now. I need better healthcare now. I have family members and friends who desperately need better healthcare now. I guess at the end of the day I think Trump will attack any dem HC plan a la the quote in your previous post—and I'd like to believe that enough people who desperately need to be able to afford medical coverage will see that heading toward M4A is the right call. I can also see people looking at other candidates' private insurance health plans and thinking it's not enough of a change to make a real difference.
Feb 12, 2020 i know but in the pursuit of the "perfect" 'good' becomes the enemy. and we will lose. we don't need to be students of history here. 2010 - Dems fiddle with HC, receive multiple cycles of election shellacking. in 2018, GOP fiddle with HC, rightly punished at the ballot box. stop trying to blow up the system in a general election, in the states that matter, i doubt it but to each their own.
