Feb 25, 2018

Do you? Whether a coin flip comes up heads or tails is a matter of probability. This is not. As IBD/TIPP, the most accurate pollster in recent elections, explains:

That's just 538 again trying to preemptively cover their a----s in case they got it handed to them. “On average, the polls have been off by 2 percentage points” lol. Actually, they were 8 points off on average during the election because their methodology f---ing sucks. That's all there is to it. They were all wrong, including 538. Clinton didn't have a 75% chance of winning, she had a 0% chance on election night.

The difference is now you’re arguing that not only did Comey contribute to her loss, but that he drove the last nail into the coffin. You also seem to think it was a political move, but have offered no evidence for this theory other than bringing up his Republican affiliation, which is hardly relevant considering he would have had nothing to gain from trying to tip the election in favor of Trump, who isn’t even a Republican ideologically speaking — certainly far removed from a McCain or a Romney who have a lot more in common with a Clinton or an Obama. If Comey had partisan loyalty to anyone it wouldn’t have been to Trump of all people, it would have been to Clinton and Obama; and in fact there's evidence that shows this to be the case.

At any rate, Comey did nothing wrong in notifying Congress of the new Clinton emails. He was just doing his job. But by then most people were tired of hearing about it anyway. Most Americans had already made up their mind whether she broke the law or not, and unless you were a total partisan it was obvious that she did. So no, I don't think this even changed more than a few votes.

Yes, we can, just by using common sense. Nobody pays attention to Facebook ads. If you think they swung a single state or even changed more than 10 people's votes you're out of your d--- mind.

 

Feb 25, 2018

^the ads gotta be reaching more than 10 people. Why else would they be spending money and time using them?

 

Feb 25, 2018

All right, 15 then. Maybe even 20 or 30 if I'm way off. But it doesn't matter. It's normal for states to have propaganda accounts -- we certainly do. The U.S. Air Force maintains tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of sock accounts on Facebook.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/mar/17/us-spy-operation-social-networks

And they have. Many have. It's not just Russia lol.

 

Feb 26, 2018

538 is not a pollster. What are you even trying to prove with this? Funny enough, your own source had this little snippet:

This is precisely what I was telling you & sign language on the last page which you endlessly denied had any impact.

How are you going to attempt to lecture anybody about polling & probability when you’re making an idiotic statement like this? Trump won the election by less than 100,000 votes across 3 states. How does that coincide with Clinton having a “0% chance?” And no, polls within the final week of the election have been off on average by 2 percentage points. That’s fact. That trend continued in 2016:

It wasn’t the last nail in the coffin, it literally saved Trump’s campaign. Republicans were jumping ship after the Hollywood access tape. His poll numbers were sinking. Then the comey letter changed the narrative & focus all for it to muster to nothing. Clinton definitely could have ran a better campaign but the comey letter was a deciding factor — undoubtedly. Polls show that & despite you continuing to repeat this falsehood that Americans had “already made up their minds,” that simply isn’t true. There were plentiful undecided voters until the very end. 15% of the electorate was still undecided with the election less than 2 weeks away. Compare that to 2012 when only 5% of the electorate was undecided in the final 2 weeks.

His actions were entirely unprecedented. No FBI Director has openly made remarks about an ongoing investigation in that manner. Not to mention, he was investigating connections between the trump campaign & Russia beginning in summer of 2016 & made no such public remarks. We didn’t know there was even an ongoing investigation until 2017 — after the election.

A small portion of their funds went towards Facebook ads. Most their funding went toward pushing disinformation & organizing events. They created large social media groups posing as real Americans (literally stole several Americans identities) & constantly pushed propaganda in effort to make Clinton & even other Republican candidates at the time, look bad.

 

Feb 26, 2018

That a presidential election isn't a slot machine or a coin flip. 538 got it wrong because their methodology is s--- and Nate Silver is a moron who talks through his hat. Again, nobody (except morons) is taking him seriously anymore. Your unstinting faith in these big-headed corporate clowns is embarrassing and you need to sit the f--- down already. It's been well over a year now since Clinton's loss. You just come off as a bad loser when you keep making excuses for these people instead of admitting defeat and learning from your mistakes.

I don't deny that it had some impact, only that it was nearly as earth-shattering as you think it was. Trump was going to win regardless. He was filling whole arenas and then some. Clinton meanwhile couldn't fill a high school gym.

The Billy Bush tape wasn't a controversial issue at all outside media and SJW echo chambers. Besides, it revealed nothing about Trump that we didn't already know. He's a notorious womanizer. He's a blowhard. This was hardly news to the American public and it certainly didn't make any important dent in Trump's ship.

The polls were wrong. They were always wrong.

Lmfao no it wasn't. He wasn't supposed to say anything to Congress about 650,000 new emails on Clinton's top aide's computer? At the time this was, at least in part, a brand-new scandal. The American people deserved to know about it.

The Trump-Russia investigation, by contrast, was a total farce. There was never anything there to begin with. It was all smoke and mirrors. It was nothing more than a fantasy originally dreamed up by the Democrats which can be chalked up to sour grapes.

By promoting Bernie Sanders and Jill Stein lol? Seeing as everyone knows Bernie would have been a much better match for Trump, I doubt the Russian troll farm was seriously trying to influence the election's outcome in Trump's direction, or in anyone's direction for that matter; otherwise they would have used more sophisticated methods. States, I'm sure, have their various reasons for running bot accounts. But if you think they reached more than a handful of people, never mind successfully organized events, again you're f---ing crazy.

 

Feb 26, 2018

Let @Enigma make it when he's ready so he can feel important.

 

Feb 26, 2018

The rules of probability are still applied. You continue to work under this assumption that the most likely event always has to happen or else the statistican is wrong. That’s not how probability or life works. 538’s model gave Trump a higher chance of winning than most other models. They gave Trump a 29% chance of winning the election which isn’t far off at all from the 30% chance that Trump’s own campaign gave their candidate.

Again, you can’t lecture anybody on polling when you’re using crowd size to determine the outcome of elections. The comey letter titled the election into Trump’s favor. It provided cover for the access hollywood tape which should have been the last major news story going into the election. The polls *clearly* show Clinton’s numbers sinking after comey sent the letter & it spread through the media like wildfire. Those are facts. In an election that was this close, it’s not hard to imagine some of those undecided voters flipping to Clinton if that wasn’t the major news story.

No they haven’t been. They’ve historically been very accurate in President elections if you understand how polls work. You clearly don’t or are trying to play dumb to save face.

The entire U.S. intelligence community disagree with this. Foreign intelligence disagrees with this. High ranking members in trump’s own administration disagrees with this.

 

Feb 26, 2018

He had a 29% chance but won in an electoral landslide. Those are some impressive mental gymnastics.

Clinton's actual numbers had already sunken by that time because she was a bad candidate.

I said they were always wrong [during the 2016 election], not that they have always been wrong. You're ESL, I guess, so maybe you haven't mastered past tense vs present perfect yet.

We've already been down this road. Russophobe Clapper and his “hand-picked” loyalists from 4, not all 17, intel agencies have no evidence to support their theory, which they even admit in their own report. If there was evidence we would have seen it by now.

"Foreign intelligence" and "high-ranking officials” are vacuous phrases. You're clearly parroting propaganda.

 

Feb 27, 2018

It's happening.

Trump expected to visit California to view border wall prototypes

 

Feb 28, 2018

Trump officially running in 2020

@Enigma rn:

 

Feb 28, 2018

Trump filed to run in 2020 on his inauguration day in January of 2017 and started stealing from donors the next day.

 

Mar 1, 2018

The “deep state” at work lmao

 

Mar 1, 2018

The third one right to left looks good

 

Mar 1, 2018

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/us/politics/justice-dept-andrew-mccabe.html

 

Mar 2, 2018

So how do you feel about your buddies at CNN defending Jeff Sessions against Trump?

 

Mar 2, 2018

 

Mar 2, 2018

Yeah, I'm not on board with Trump's guns proposals either, but what does this have to do with CNN defending a conservative like Sessions when it's politically convenient to do so?

Obama had even less respect for the 2A and attacked it on a regular basis, by the way.

 

Mar 2, 2018

Obama never said guns should be confiscated without due process, r-----.

Gun rights expanded on the federal level over Obama's term.

What did CNN even say about Jeff Sessions? They commented on how stupid Trump looks for attacking his own AG and how the Keebler elf went to dinner with his colleagues?

Amazing. Your side is winning huge.